Anwar will be PM this September?
Yes, probably he would, if he can gather enough leaping frogs from BN to join his caucus. From what we perceive after reading 'Real Politic Podcast' written in Malaysiakini with regards to PM Abdullah political survival, it seems PM Abdullah is really in a deep situation.
What question remains is he really in trouble, or was it just our error in understanding the situation. Yes, as President of UMNO and Chairman of BN he has got to take the responsibility after BN fail to get 2/3 majority. But currently he is only short of 4 seats.
I think both Ong Kian Ming and Onn Yeoh erred in analyzing the political situation and have probably coming out with a not so accurate analysis. Much of their analysis was influence by western political school of thoughts and may not reflect UMNO or Malays political scenarios.
On their analysis they said that SAPP action has improved Anwar chances of becoming PM. I beg to differ on this. It seems the domino did not fall as expected after all, well at least not yet.
What will Anwar do then, will Anwar look for more frogs that are willing to leap into PKR or PR wheelbarrows? It would not be easy for Anwar to manage those frogs while driving the wheelbarrows both hand.
Tony Tien in his writing in Malaysiakini said that The expulsion of Sapp from BN may not go down well with Sabahans and the ruling coalition could be severely punished in the next polls...
Once again I will beg to differ on this. I would agree with Tun Mahathir that Tiny SAPP would have a slim chance of rocking PM Abdullah ship. We ought to look at the influence SAPP have among the Sabahan. To say BN will be punished is overly an over statement.
BN leaders are saying that Yong Teck Lee are alone in this political drama and that SAPP are equally divided. In a report by malaysiakini, the party supreme council meeting, which kicked off at 10am at Sapp headquarters in Kota Kinabalu, is expected to be a showdown between party boss and his deputy.
I must admit that I am a great admirer of Anwar Ibrahim, but I know that I must live in the real world when dealing with political situation.
Most of UMNO or even BN leaders have political blisters (kudis) on their body. Any attempt for mutiny against the current Captain will resulting the Captain will expose those blister publicly.
I am not counting Anwar will be PM anytime this year or even next year. I am hoping though, that PR will be a effective oppositions in parliament.